BBC NEWS | Science & Environment | 'Quiet Sun' baffling astronomers

[Roger Bagula]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8008473.stm
BBC NEWS
'Quiet Sun' baffling astronomers

By Pallab Ghosh
Science correspondent, BBC News

The Sun is the dimmest it has been for nearly a century.

There are no sunspots, very few solar flares - and our nearest star is
the quietest it has been for a very long time.

The observations are baffling astronomers, who are due to study new
pictures of the Sun, taken from space, at the UK National Astronomy Meeting.

The Sun normally undergoes an 11-year cycle of activity. At its peak, it
has a tumultuous boiling atmosphere that spits out flares and
planet-sized chunks of super-hot gas. This is followed by a calmer period.

Last year, it was expected that it would have been hotting up after a
quiet spell. But instead it hit a 50-year low in solar wind pressure, a
55-year low in radio emissions, and a 100-year low in sunspot activity.

According to Prof Louise Hara of University College London, it is
unclear why this is happening or when the Sun is likely to become more
active again.

"There's no sign of us coming out of it yet," she told BBC News.

"At the moment, there are scientific papers coming out suggesting that
we'll be going into a normal period of activity soon.

"Others are suggesting we'll be going into another minimum period - this
is a big scientific debate at the moment."

In the mid-17th Century, a quiet spell - known as the Maunder Minimum -
lasted 70 years, and led to a "mini ice age".

This has resulted in some people suggesting that a similar cooling might
offset the impact of climate change.

According to Prof Mike Lockwood of Southampton University, this view is
too simplistic.

"I wish the Sun was coming to our aid but, unfortunately, the data shows
that is not the case," he said.

Prof Lockwood was one of the first researchers to show that the Sun's
activity has been gradually decreasing since 1985, yet overall global
temperatures have continued to rise.

"If you look carefully at the observations, it's pretty clear that the
underlying level of the Sun peaked at about 1985 and what we are seeing
is a continuation of a downward trend (in solar activity) that's been
going on for a couple of decades.

"If the Sun's dimming were to have a cooling effect, we'd have seen it
by now."

'Middle ground'

Evidence from tree trunks and ice cores suggest that the Sun is calming
down after an unusually high point in its activity.

Professor Lockwood believes that as well as the Sun's 11-year cycle,
there is an underlying solar oscillation lasting hundreds of years.

He suggests that 1985 marked the "grand maximum" in this long-term cycle
and the Maunder Minimum marked its low point.

"We are re-entering the middle ground after a period which has seen the
Sun in its top 10% of activity," said Professor Lockwood.

"We would expect it to be more than 100 years before we get down to the
levels of the Maunder Minimum."

He added that the current slight dimming of the Sun was not going to
reverse the rise in global temperatures caused by the burning of fossil
fuels.

"What we are seeing is consistent with a global temperature rise, not
that the Sun is coming to our aid."

Data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows
global average temperatures have risen by about 0.7C since the beginning
of the 20th Century.

And the IPCC projects that the world will continue to warm, with
temperatures expected to rise between 1.8C and 4C by the end of the century.

No-one knows how the centuries-long waxing and waning of the Sun works.
However, astronomers now have space telescopes studying the Sun in detail.

According to Prof Richard Harrison of the Rutherford Appleton
Laboratory, Oxfordshire, this current quiet period gives astronomers a
unique opportunity.

"This is very exciting because as astronomers we've never seen anything
like this before in our lifetimes," he said.

"We have spacecraft up there to study the Sun in phenomenal detail. With
these telescopes we can study this minimum of activity in a way that we
could not have done so in the past."
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/science/nature/8008473.stm

Published: 2009/04/21 05:04:15 GMT

© BBC MMIX

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[Roger Bagula]

--- In ***@yahoogroups.com, "Robert Karl Stonjek"
<***@...> wrote:

Our Sun: A Little Slow On the Uptake for Cycle 24
April 27th, 2009 in Space & Earth / Astronomy
Current Image of Sun-April 26, 2009. Via: Mauna Loa Solar Observatory

A very recent article carried by the BBC called, 'Quiet Sun Baffling
Astronomers' sent me in a twitter of research activity. The BBC
article's head notes include "The Sun is the Dimmest It Has Been for
Nearly A Century" and a suggestion we could be possibly looking at
another Maunder Minimum which occurred in the mid-seventeenth century
and lasted some 70-years which some believe led to a mini ice age
causing havoc throughout North America and Europe.

In fact, according to the Hinode (Solar-B) project and the High Altitude
Observatory in Boulder, Colorado and other experts on the Sun, Solar
Cycle 24 is beginning slowly. Current thinking aided by sophisticated
equipment suggest more precise information is needed to connect the Mini
Ice Age to low sunspot activity. Some definitions and background are
necessary for a full understanding of the propositions advanced.

Sunspot Cycles:

A sunspot is visible from Earth without the aid of a telescope and is
identified as a dark spot on the Sun's surface. It is a dark spot
because it is cooler than the rest of the Sun, with a temperature
running 4,000 K compared to the rest of the Sun's surface material which
runs over 5,800 K. The brightness factor of sunspots compared to the
rest of the Sun's surface is relative. A sunspot if excised from the Sun
would shine as bright as the Moon. The Sunspot is noted for intense
magnetic activity which inhibits convection and results in the reduced
temperature.

Sunspot Cycles recordings were first made by Chinese astronomers in 800
B.C. Early mystics and astrologers kept track of Sunspots because it was
believed the activity of the Sun foretold important events. Soon after
the telescope was discovered in the 1600s scientists were able to
observe and record the Sun's 27-day rotation, but there were mixed
theories on the spots on the Sun's surface. Some thought the spots were
dark clouds in the atmosphere of the Sun while others thought the spots
represented undiscovered planets crossing the Sun's surface.

German astronomer Samuel Schwabe discovered the increase and decrease of
yearly sunspot counts in 1843 and guessed the cycle length to be around
10-years. His work was enhanced by French physicists Foucault and Fizeau
and they captured the first photographs of the Sun and sunspots in 1845.
Their work was followed by the discovery in 1852 that the period of the
sunspot cycle coincided with a period of geomagnetic activity on Earth.
The Sun-Earth connection was made and the founding of space weather
science debuted.

The period of 1645 to 1715 called the Mauder Minimum is noted for a
period where there were very few sunspots and a corresponding bitter
cold Winters in Europe and North America. This period on Earth is known
as the Little Ice Age. Parenthetically, drawing a direct cause and
effect relationship between the two events is the subject of heated
debate among scientists. The Medieval Maximum period occurred in 1100 to
1250 marked by unusually warm temperatures on Earth and a very high
level of solar activity and sunspots. The Dalton Minimum occurred in the
1800s and is noted for fairly low sunspot activity and cooler
temperatures on Earth. Since 1900, with the exception of very recent
history, scientists have called the relatively high sunspot count a
period called the Modern Maximum.

Current Thinking:

Cooperation between NASA, EESA, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences,
HAO, The Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Hinode
(Solar-B). IAC and counterparts around the globe have de-mystified and
almost laid to rest previously advanced ideas about the Sun-Earth link
and sunspots.

Dr. Peter Gilman's, the recipient of the prestigious Hale Prize from the
American Astronomical Society has spent four-decades researching the
Sun's different rotation discovered what is known as the
Butterflydiagrams. This pattern was developed by plotting the sunspots
from the Sun's poles towards its equator during what is considered
presently to be the 11-year solar cycle. His collaborative work with
Mausumi Dikpati intends to produce a unified theory of the solar cycle
and elaborate on his 'active longitudes' work where magnetic fields are
strong and sunspots recur over time.

Other work concludes that during peak sunspot solar cycles a great
bundle of plasma escapes from the Sun. This coronal mass ejection. (CME)
accelerates through the corona quickly. If it is pointed at the Earth,
the CME will irradiate everything in its path, disrupt radio signals,
interrupt circuitries in satellites, knock out power grids on Earth and
generally create a beautiful disruptive high-altitude auroras.

Most experts in the Solar-Earth and Space Weather field agree with HAO,
Boulder's scientists finding in 2004 that more work needs to be done to
show a direct correlation between historical data of the various epic
low sunspots or high sunspot periods and Earth's Little Ice Age or
Medieval Maximum. It could be a combination of a cold snap and warming
trend on Earth in combination with the dormant or active sunspot
activity. Research is on going.

BBC's Confusion Over Low Sunspot Period and Global Dimming:

A period of low activity in sunspots on the Sun's surface is not the
same as the theory of Global Dimming or the dimming of the Sun. The
English Scientist Gerry Stanhill discovered while working in Israel a
marked decrease in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface.
In the USA, a 10-percent decrease, the former Soviet Union, nearly
30-percent and globally a decrease in sunlight reaching Earth. The
mainstream opinion on the cause of Global Dimming is the increased
presence in the atmosphere of particulate matter and aerosols from
burning fossil fuels and other human activity. In the Global Dimming
scenario, the polluted matter acts like a mirror reflecting back into
the space the Sun's rays. The effect on Earth is drought, crop damage
and potentially harm to human health.

In Conclusion:

Strong evidence points to a connection between weather on Earth and
activity on the Sun. The Hinode (Solar-B) satellite was launched in 2006
from Japan carrying three different telescopes on board and was placed
on a heliosynchronous orbit that allows it to track the solar disc and
perform detailed observations. Tracking the sunspot cycles began in the
early 1700s with what is called Cycle 1. According to the latest from
Hinode (Solar-B) log, the current "Cycle 24 is Beginning Slowly". They
reference Cycle 23 which peaked in 2001 and while shorter in duration
than most, showed some of the largest Sun flares ever recorded. Some are
predicting Cycle 24 is going to be a Hot Tamale (at its peak) when it
kicks into gear sometime in 2009 or 2010.

For More Info:

Hinode Solar-B; http://solarb.msfc.nasa.gov/

Predicting the Strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux transport;
http://192.211.16.13/z/zita/articles/Dik06GRLMar.pdf

HAO, Boulder Colorado; http://www.hao.ucar.edu

BBC Article; http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8008473.stm
Our Sun: A Little Slow On the Uptake for Cycle 24

© 2009 PhysOrg.com
http://www.physorg.com/news160043689.html

Posted by
Robert Karl Stonjek

--- End forwarded message ---

[Roger Bagula]

NCAR News Release
Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle

March 6, 2006

BOULDER—The next sunspot cycle will be 30-50% stronger than the last one
and begin as much as a year late, according to a breakthrough forecast
using a computer model of solar dynamics developed by scientists at the
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Predicting the Sun's
cycles accurately, years in advance, will help societies plan for active
bouts of solar storms, which can slow satellite orbits, disrupt
communications, and bring down power systems.

The scientists have confidence in the forecast because, in a series of
test runs, the newly developed model simulated the strength of the past
eight solar cycles with more than 98% accuracy. The forecasts are
generated, in part, by tracking the subsurface movements of the sunspot
remnants of the previous two solar cycles. The team is publishing its
forecast in the current issue of Geophysical Research Letters.

"Our model has demonstrated the necessary skill to be used as a
forecasting tool," says NCAR scientist Mausumi Dikpati, the leader of
the forecast team at NCAR's High Altitude Observatory that also includes
Peter Gilman and Giuliana de Toma.

Understanding the cycles

The Sun goes through approximately 11-year cycles, from peak storm
activity to quiet and back again. Solar scientists have tracked them for
some time without being able to predict their relative intensity or timing.
Scientists
NCAR scientists Mausumi Dikpati (left), Peter Gilman, and Giuliana de
Toma examine results from a new computer model of solar dynamics. (Photo
by Carlye Calvin, UCAR)

Forecasting the cycle may help society anticipate solar storms, which
can disrupt communications and power systems and affect the orbits of
satellites. The storms are linked to twisted magnetic fields in the Sun
that suddenly snap and release tremendous amounts of energy. They tend
to occur near dark regions of concentrated magnetic fields, known as
sunspots.

The NCAR team's computer model, known as the Predictive Flux-transport
Dynamo Model, draws on research by NCAR scientists indicating that the
evolution of sunspots is caused by a current of plasma, or electrified
gas, that circulates between the Sun's equator and its poles over a
period of 17 to 22 years. This current acts like a conveyor belt of
sunspots.

The sunspot process begins with tightly concentrated magnetic field
lines in the solar convection zone (the outermost layer of the Sun's
interior). The field lines rise to the surface at low latitudes and form
bipolar sunspots, which are regions of concentrated magnetic fields.
When these sunspots decay, they imprint the moving plasma with a type of
magnetic signature. As the plasma nears the poles, it sinks about
200,000 kilometers (124,000 miles) back into the convection zone and
starts returning toward the equator at a speed of about one meter (three
feet) per second or slower. The increasingly concentrated fields become
stretched and twisted by the internal rotation of the Sun as they near
the equator, gradually becoming less stable than the surrounding plasma.
This eventually causes coiled-up magnetic field lines to rise up, tear
through the Sun's surface, and create new sunspots.

The subsurface plasma flow used in the model has been verified with the
relatively new technique of helioseismology, based on observations from
both NSF– and NASA–supported instruments. This technique tracks sound
waves reverberating inside the Sun to reveal details about the interior,
much as a doctor might use an ultrasound to see inside a patient.
Figure Comparison

NCAR scientists have succeeded in simulating the intensity of the
sunspot cycle by developing a new computer model of solar processes.
This figure compares observations of the past 12 cycles (above) with
model results that closely match the sunspot peaks (below). The
intensity level is based on the amount of the Sun's visible hemisphere
with sunspot activity. The NCAR team predicts the next cycle will be
30-50% more intense than the current cycle. (Figure by Mausumi Dikpati,
Peter Gilman, and Giuliana de Toma, NCAR.)



Predicting Cycles 24 and 25

The Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model is enabling NCAR scientists
to predict that the next solar cycle, known as Cycle 24, will produce
sunspots across an area slightly larger than 2.5% of the visible surface
of the Sun. The scientists expect the cycle to begin in late 2007 or
early 2008, which is about 6 to 12 months later than a cycle would
normally start. Cycle 24 is likely to reach its peak about 2012.

By analyzing recent solar cycles, the scientists also hope to forecast
sunspot activity two solar cycles, or 22 years, into the future. The
NCAR team is planning in the next year to issue a forecast of Cycle 25,
which will peak in the early 2020s.

"This is a significant breakthrough with important applications,
especially for satellite-dependent sectors of society," explains NCAR
scientist Peter Gilman.

The NCAR team received funding from the National Science Foundation and
NASA’s Living with a Star program.



Related sites on the World Wide Web

NCAR's High Altitude Observatory
Geophysical Research Letters

[Roger Bagula]

Loading Image...
I did this in 2007 to show that solar activity didn't correlate with the
temperature increases:
actually they have two different fractal dimensions even.
I had no idea a prize winning astronomer had predicted a black swan
event in the near future.
The cantor plot seem to indicate lower solar sunspot activity/ solar
flux for several centuries coming.
I downloaded the "yearrg.dat" file from a government site on the web :
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsunspotnumber.html
No model was assumed. I got the dimension
and used a fractal cartoon like in Mandelbrot market analysis.
All of this activity was posted on the web in late 2007.
I wasn't trying to predict solar activity in the future.
I was trying to differentiate solar activity from golar warmimg
by dimensional analysis.
Mathematica:
Clear[f, g, h, k, ff, kk, ll]
f[x_] := x /; 0 <= x <= 1/3
f[x_] := 0 /; 1/3 < x <= 2/3
f[x_] := x /; 2/3 < x <= 1
ff[x_] = f[Mod[Abs[x], 1]];
s0 = Log[2]/Log[3];
kk[x_] = Sum[ff[3^k*x]/3^(s0*k), {k, 0, 20}];
ll[x_] = Sum[ff[3^k*(x + 1/2)]/3^(s0*k), {k, 0, 20}];
(* adjusting axes crudely*)
Floor[6000/(772/2)];
ga = Table[175.1*kk[(n - 1610)/10000]/2, {n, 4000 + 1610, 15000 + 1610,
15}];
g0 = ListPlot[ga, PlotJoined -> True, Axes -> None]
Directory[];
raw = Flatten[ReadList["yearrg.dat", Number, RecordLists -> True]];
Dimensions[raw]

b = Table[raw[[n]], {n, 2, 772, 2}];
amp = Max[b]

c = Apply[Plus, b]/Length[b]

ticks = Map[{#, StringForm["`1`", Sequence @@ raw[[
1 + 2*#]]]} &, Range[1, Length[b], 100]];
g1 = ListPlot[b, PlotJoined -> True, AspectRatio ->
0.2, Frame -> True, FrameTicks -> {ticks,
Automatic, None, None}, PlotStyle -> Green,
FrameLabel -> "sunspot #", Axes -> None];
Show[{g0, g1},
FrameTicks -> {ticks, Automatic, None, None}, FrameLabel -> "sunspot #",
AspectRatio -> 0.2, Frame -> True]

[Roger Bagula]

--- In ***@yahoogroups.com, "Robert Karl Stonjek"
<***@...> wrote:


Fickle. The predicted coming solar maximum (red line) compared with the
past three solar maxima (blue line). Inset: The sun's face, showing dark
sunspots.
Credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Sun's Behavior Flummoxes Solar Scientists
By Robert Zimmerman
ScienceNOW Daily News
8 May 2009

Fans of solar storms and power failures are in for some bad news. Today,
a panel of the world's solar scientists announced that the next solar
maximum--when the sun's irradiance, solar wind, and sunspots are most
volatile--is not coming as soon and will not be as strong as predicted.
That means fewer solar storms, which can cause power outages here on Earth.
For the past 3 centuries, the sun has followed a regular and reliable
cycle. Every 11 years, it experiences a peak and a valley in its
activity, called the maximum and minimum, respectively. During maxima,
there are numerous sunspots (cool and dark areas on the sun's surface),
the polarity of the sun's magnetic field weakens and then flips, and the
solar wind fluctuates wildly. During minima, the sun is relatively
placid, with no sunspots, a steady and strong magnetic field, and a
more-or-less constant solar wind.

Although the solar cycle is regular, scientists have had a difficult
time predicting exactly when the maxima and minima will occur. In 2006,
for example, as the sun slowly settled down from its most recent
maximum, scientists argued with great passion over the timing and
strength of the next peak. Forty-five predictions were offered, based on
a variety of techniques, from the theoretical to the purely statistical.
These predictions generally fell into two camps, with one group
forecasting an early and strong solar maximum whereas another group
predicted a late and weak maximum.

In the end, the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel, made up of scientists
from both groups, published both forecasts. "It was amazing how split
the community's predictions were," says panel chair Douglas Biesecker of
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather
Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado.

To everyone's surprise, the sun so far hasn't followed either
prediction. Both camps expected that by March 2008, the sun would hit
its minimum and begin ramping up its activity toward one of the
predicted maximums. But the sun remained quieter than it has been in
almost a century. It has now been more than a year, and the sun is still
docile, in one of the deepest solar minimums on record.

So the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel is revising its 2007 predictions.
And this time, three-quarters of the researchers are on the same page.
Today's announcement comes to three main conclusions. First, the panel
now believes that the ongoing minimum reached its lowest point in
December 2008. Second, the scientists predict that the next maximum will
be weak with relatively few sunspots, the weakest since 1928. And third,
the panelists say that the maximum will peak in May 2013, 9 months later
than previously predicted.

Whether this newly revised forecast comes true, however, still remains
unknown. As of today, the solar minimum continues, as deep and as quiet
as scientists have ever seen. And there remains significant disagreement
within the panel, with a large minority still unconvinced that the new
prediction is right.

Source: Science
http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2009/508/1?etoc

Posted by
Robert Karl Stonjek

--- End forwarded message ---