Roger Bagula
2009-04-23 17:06:34 UTC
Yesterday it was nothing happening on the sun:
lowest activity since 1600's...now this.
Is a solar black swan is predicted?
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Space/story?id=7384952&page=1
ABC News
Are We Ready for a Solar Katrina?
Severe Solar Storms Could Harm Power Grid, Navigational Systems and
Spacecraft,
Scientists Say
By KI MAE HEUSSNER
April 21, 2009—
More than a million people without power. The distribution of drinkable
water
disrupted. Transportation, communication and banking upset. Trillions of
dollars
in damage.
Hurricanes, blizzards and other earthly tempests aren't the only natural
forces
with the potential to sow catastrophe.
Severe weather in the sun's outer atmosphere could knock out much of the
country's power grid, incapacitate navigational systems and jeopardize
spacecraft, scientists say.
While the odds of a solar disaster are relatively small, scientists warn
that we
need to ramp up our defenses against solar storms, especially given our
increasing dependence on technology that is so susceptible to radiation
from the
sun.
"It's one of those events that is of low probability but high
consequence," Dr.
Roberta Balstad, a research scientist with Columbia University's Center for
Research on Environmental Decisions. "The consequences could be extreme."
And Balstad and her colleagues emphasize that we've seen those extreme
consequences before.
Solar Storms Cause Blackouts, Impair Communications
In 1859, a solar storm, also known as the Carrington event (after the
astronomer
Richard Carrington, who first recognized the cause) fried the telegraph
system.
Another powerful space weather event in 1989 caused a blackout in Quebec,
Canada. Other storms have led to diverted airplanes and impaired
telecommunications satellites.
Earlier this year, a group of experts from around the country, including
Balstad, issued a report to the National Academies of Sciences on the
economic
and social impacts of solar storms.
The point of the report was to raise awareness and encourage the
government and
private businesses to prepare for the long-term consequences of a major
event.
"We tend to think that we're in control of nature, but we're not," she said.
"What we need to pay attention to is our total dependence in all parts
of lives
on the electric grid, which is vulnerable. ... If there is some kind of
disruption, we need to be ready to deal with it."
In the face of a "space weather" Katrina, she said we wouldn't be prepared.
The direct result of a space storm would be the breakdown of the electrical
grid, the report warned.
John Kappenman, an analyst with Metatech Corporation, a company that
studies the
effect of electromagnetic interference on power systems, said in the
report that
damaged transformers take a long time to repair.
Restoring Power Grid Could Take More Than 12 Months
In well-documented cases involving heat failures in the transformers that
undergird the power system, he said it has taken 12 months or more to
replace
the damaged units with new ones.
According to the NAS report, "Collateral effects of a longer-term outage
would
likely include, for example, disruption of the transportation,
communication,
banking, and finance systems, and government services; the breakdown of the
distribution of potable water owing to pump failure; and the loss of
perishable
foods and medications because of lack of refrigeration."
The loss of services, it said, would spill over from one region of the
country
to the entire nation and potentially lead to international implications.
The price tag of such a calamity? Several trillion dollars per year, the
report
said.
Worst-Case Scenario Is Unlikely
But scientists emphasize that this situation is improble.
Michael Kaiser, project scientist for NASA's Solar TErrestrial RElations
Observatory (STEREO) mission, told ABCNews.com that he doesn't think
it's likely
that a doomsday situation will unfold.
Even though he acknowledged the devastation previous storms had caused,
he said
that were storms of equal magnitude to hit now, power grid operators could
adjust the system to mitigate harm if they had enough notice.
"People who run the power grids on the ground could probably lower the
amount of
power they're carrying," he said.
He also said that given how quiet the sun has been recently, he doesn't
expect a
powerful solar storm anytime soon.
The sun's activity waxes and wanes in an 11-year cycle. Right now, he
said, the
sun is experiencing the deepest minimum in about a century.
But, he said, in the next few years, as the sun approaches the peak of its
cycle, the possibility for interference increases, especially considering we
have launched more spacecraft and rely more heavily on technology.
He emphasized that the airlines, the oil and gas industry, agriculture
companies
and others are dependent on technology that is vulnerable to the sun's
volatility.
For example, he said, highway companies, agro-business and deep sea drilling
rigs rely on precision GPS technology. Solar interference could knock
them off
about 100 yards, and even that could have a negative effect on their
operations.
We're More Susceptible but 'We're Getting Smarter'
He and his colleagues are working to predict sun storms with the same
accuracy
as meteorologists who predict hurricanes but said they can only forecast
about
12 to 17 hours in advance.
Given the potential impact of the storms, they're working to refine their
systems.
"It takes a less intense storm to do some damage," he said. "On the
other hand,
we're getting smarter now."
Copyright © 2009 ABC News Internet Ventures
lowest activity since 1600's...now this.
Is a solar black swan is predicted?
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Space/story?id=7384952&page=1
ABC News
Are We Ready for a Solar Katrina?
Severe Solar Storms Could Harm Power Grid, Navigational Systems and
Spacecraft,
Scientists Say
By KI MAE HEUSSNER
April 21, 2009—
More than a million people without power. The distribution of drinkable
water
disrupted. Transportation, communication and banking upset. Trillions of
dollars
in damage.
Hurricanes, blizzards and other earthly tempests aren't the only natural
forces
with the potential to sow catastrophe.
Severe weather in the sun's outer atmosphere could knock out much of the
country's power grid, incapacitate navigational systems and jeopardize
spacecraft, scientists say.
While the odds of a solar disaster are relatively small, scientists warn
that we
need to ramp up our defenses against solar storms, especially given our
increasing dependence on technology that is so susceptible to radiation
from the
sun.
"It's one of those events that is of low probability but high
consequence," Dr.
Roberta Balstad, a research scientist with Columbia University's Center for
Research on Environmental Decisions. "The consequences could be extreme."
And Balstad and her colleagues emphasize that we've seen those extreme
consequences before.
Solar Storms Cause Blackouts, Impair Communications
In 1859, a solar storm, also known as the Carrington event (after the
astronomer
Richard Carrington, who first recognized the cause) fried the telegraph
system.
Another powerful space weather event in 1989 caused a blackout in Quebec,
Canada. Other storms have led to diverted airplanes and impaired
telecommunications satellites.
Earlier this year, a group of experts from around the country, including
Balstad, issued a report to the National Academies of Sciences on the
economic
and social impacts of solar storms.
The point of the report was to raise awareness and encourage the
government and
private businesses to prepare for the long-term consequences of a major
event.
"We tend to think that we're in control of nature, but we're not," she said.
"What we need to pay attention to is our total dependence in all parts
of lives
on the electric grid, which is vulnerable. ... If there is some kind of
disruption, we need to be ready to deal with it."
In the face of a "space weather" Katrina, she said we wouldn't be prepared.
The direct result of a space storm would be the breakdown of the electrical
grid, the report warned.
John Kappenman, an analyst with Metatech Corporation, a company that
studies the
effect of electromagnetic interference on power systems, said in the
report that
damaged transformers take a long time to repair.
Restoring Power Grid Could Take More Than 12 Months
In well-documented cases involving heat failures in the transformers that
undergird the power system, he said it has taken 12 months or more to
replace
the damaged units with new ones.
According to the NAS report, "Collateral effects of a longer-term outage
would
likely include, for example, disruption of the transportation,
communication,
banking, and finance systems, and government services; the breakdown of the
distribution of potable water owing to pump failure; and the loss of
perishable
foods and medications because of lack of refrigeration."
The loss of services, it said, would spill over from one region of the
country
to the entire nation and potentially lead to international implications.
The price tag of such a calamity? Several trillion dollars per year, the
report
said.
Worst-Case Scenario Is Unlikely
But scientists emphasize that this situation is improble.
Michael Kaiser, project scientist for NASA's Solar TErrestrial RElations
Observatory (STEREO) mission, told ABCNews.com that he doesn't think
it's likely
that a doomsday situation will unfold.
Even though he acknowledged the devastation previous storms had caused,
he said
that were storms of equal magnitude to hit now, power grid operators could
adjust the system to mitigate harm if they had enough notice.
"People who run the power grids on the ground could probably lower the
amount of
power they're carrying," he said.
He also said that given how quiet the sun has been recently, he doesn't
expect a
powerful solar storm anytime soon.
The sun's activity waxes and wanes in an 11-year cycle. Right now, he
said, the
sun is experiencing the deepest minimum in about a century.
But, he said, in the next few years, as the sun approaches the peak of its
cycle, the possibility for interference increases, especially considering we
have launched more spacecraft and rely more heavily on technology.
He emphasized that the airlines, the oil and gas industry, agriculture
companies
and others are dependent on technology that is vulnerable to the sun's
volatility.
For example, he said, highway companies, agro-business and deep sea drilling
rigs rely on precision GPS technology. Solar interference could knock
them off
about 100 yards, and even that could have a negative effect on their
operations.
We're More Susceptible but 'We're Getting Smarter'
He and his colleagues are working to predict sun storms with the same
accuracy
as meteorologists who predict hurricanes but said they can only forecast
about
12 to 17 hours in advance.
Given the potential impact of the storms, they're working to refine their
systems.
"It takes a less intense storm to do some damage," he said. "On the
other hand,
we're getting smarter now."
Copyright © 2009 ABC News Internet Ventures